Opel's plant in Bochem, Germany, which is expected to close in a few years. (Image credit: AFP via... [+]
We told you the other day about the Alix Partners study that says the American auto industry is not going to boom the way it did during the last decade. Now, Alix Partners weighs in on Europe -- and the picture isn't pretty. It warns European carmakers are especially vulnerable to economic unrest because they haven't taken the steps required to eliminate a huge problem with overcapacity.
As if any proof was needed, Ford said Thursday that it expects its international losses in the second quarter will be triple those of the first quarter. Bob Shanks, Ford's chief financial officer, told The New York Times it would consider closing an assembly plant in Europe if demand continues falling. Ford lost $190 million overseas during the first quarter, most of it because of losses in Europe. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Ford said its second quarter overseas losses could be as much as $570 million.
Meanwhile, General Motors CEO Dan Akerson said in Chicago Thursday that he's concerned that weakness in Europe will affect his automaker's second half results. GM is in the midst of a restructuring in Europe, where it has lost $16.4 billion since 1999, according to Bloomberg.
If it were up to Alix Partners, carmakers that operate in Europe would jump on their problems -- and quickly. In its study, the consulting firm estimates that there are 5.9 million units of excess capacity out of 26 million units in the European market. The situation threatens European companies' profitability, which is already under pressure because of fears over the economy.
" If there’s some problem related to the Euro or the economy in Greece or Spain, it's going to get even worse than this," says John Hoffecker, who heads Alix's automotive practice.
Alix Partners says European companies have to keep their plants running at least 75 percent full in order to break even. Among the industry's 10 major companies, it says five car makers -- BMW, Daimler, Hyundai, Volkswagen and PSA -- are above that level. But five others -- Renault/Nissan, Ford, Opel, Fiat and Toyota -- are operating below it.
By contrast, plants in the United States are running at about 90 percent capacity, due to the deep cuts the carmakers made between 2007 and 2011. In that time, the companies closed 18 factories. In Europe, however, carmakers closed only three plants and they continue to open new ones in Eastern Europe as well as Russia. "They never fundamentally restructured their industry," said Hoffecker.
The overcapacity comes at a time when the European market mix is shifting precipitously. In 1990, volume manufacturers controlled 85 percent of the car market. Premium manufacturers like BMW and Daimler held 13 percent, and value manufacturers selling entry level cars had just 2 percent of the market. Now, premium manufacturers have 16 percent, value manufacturers have 20 percent, and there's just 63 percent left for the middle of the market.
Hoffecker thinks the value market will continue to grow in Europe, as customers face financial pressures, and as more players pour in from around the world. As that happens, the most likely survivors are those who can get their capacity in line with demand.
