Avaragado and friends predict 2024

Slightly depleted by Covid, which apparently no longer exists, a hardy group of six gathered at the traditional venue to celebrate the year end and commiserate the year start.

The year of oh lord 2023 is what we now must call “relatively stable,” in that the UK changed neither monarch nor prime minister and we were not confined to our homes by law (exceptions apply, eg partying while Tory).

The oncoming storm of 2024 promises much in the way of little. In a similar vein, here are the group’s predictions… please note that as is traditional, Chris participated alcoholically.

STOP PRESS: Chef has supplied his Covid-riddled predictions by sterilised means, so I’ve added them.

Predictions

  • Randoms:
    • AndyC: Virgin Galactic goes completely bust “and stops”
    • Chris: “Humanity lands on the moon before the end of 2024”
  • David: When will the general election be?
    • Adrian: June
    • Louise: June
    • AndyC: May
    • David: May
    • Melanie: July
    • Chris: 2024
    • Chef: 2025
  • David: Who will win the election?
    • Adrian: Labour
    • Louse: Labour
    • AndyC: Keir
    • David: Labour
    • Melanie: Labour
    • Chris: Green
    • Chef: Labour
  • Adrian: Does the Gaza war spread to Egypt?
    • Adrian: Yes, in June
    • Louise: No, to Lebanon maybe
    • AndyC: Both sides sign up to dual state
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Chris: “No, not before the end of January thank you”
    • Chef: Not Egypt, Syria
  • Melanie: How many states will ban Trump from standing?
    • Adrian: 5
    • Louise: 4
    • AndyC: 4
    • David: 3
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chris: 79
    • Chef: Effectively none – supreme court will overrule the bans
  • Louise: Will there be at least one riot in the UK linked to the cost of living crisis?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No, it’ll be something else
    • Chris: “There is no cost of living crisis, everyone is rich”
    • Chef: No (too many strikes for people to get there)
  • Adrian: Who is the next US president?
    • Adrian: Michelle Obama
    • Louise: Trump
    • AndyC: Kanye West
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Elon Musk
    • Chris: Michael J Fox
    • Chef: Biden
  • Melanie: Who will be the most famous/damaging person to appear on the Epstein list?
    • Adrian: Barack Obama
    • Louise: Samuel L Jackson
    • AndyC: Farage
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Tom Hanks
    • Chris: Russell Brand, Bernard Cribbins
    • Chef: Bill Clinton
  • Celebrity deaths
    • Adrian: The Queen, Nigel Farage
    • Louise: Joe Biden, David Attenborough
    • AndyC: Jimmy Carr
    • David: Prince Andrew, Neil Kinnock
    • Melanie: Fergie, DIonne Warwick
    • Chris: Harrison Ford
    • Chef: A Beatle, a Rolling Stone

See you next year!

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Avaragado’s 2023 predictions – results

Oh, you again. I write after the sun has set on another year but has not yet risen on the new, which is a very long way of saying it’s 6pm on NYE. And it’s just late enough that I’m confident a bunch of our rubbish predictions a year ago won’t suddenly come true in the last gasp. There’s always a chance of a celebrity death, I suppose.

Here now are the results, with my comments in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Louise: will China try to invade Taiwan?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: China will invade Japan
    • Melanie: yes
    • AndyC: no
    • David. no
    • Louise: yes
    • [China did not, thankfully]
  • Louise: will Putin die?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: Who’s Putin? No
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Putin did not, sadly]
  • Chris: who will be the Glastonbury headliners?
    • Chef: PinkPantheress. Doja Cat
    • Chris: Taylor Swift, Arctic Monkeys
    • Melanie: Dua Lipa, Harry Styles
    • AndyC: Eminem, Rihanna
    • David: Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift
    • Louise: pass
    • [According to Wikipedia: Arctic Monkeys, Guns N’ Roses, Elton John. Chris wins!]
  • Chef: will the Bank of England base rate hit 5%?
    • Chef: no, 4.75%
    • Chris: no, 4.5%
    • Melanie: yes, 5%
    • AndyC: yes, 5.5%
    • David: yes, 6%
    • Louise: yes, 5%
    • [It did, and is currently at its peak of 5.25%]
  • David: when will Jeremy Hunt stop being Chancellor?
    • Chef: he won’t
    • Chris: he won’t
    • Melanie: he won’t
    • AndyC: he won’t
    • David: June
    • Louise: he won’t
    • [He didn’t.]
  • AndyC: will the government do a Covid booster for under 50s?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: no – but people will be able to pay to get one
    • [They didn’t, for no reason anyone can fathom except the standard Tories innit]
  • Chef: will there be another Scottish referendum on independence?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: no
    • David: no
    • Louise: no
    • [Not so far. None of us predicted Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation]
  • AndyC: will the Cambridge congestion charge be approved?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: not in its current form, yes eventually
    • Melanie: sadly yes
    • AndyC: yes but changed
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Amazingly, it’s not going to happen]
  • Chef: nominate some celebrity deaths
    • Chef: Elton John, Robbie Williams
    • Chris: Barry Manilow, Greta Thunberg
    • Melanie: Dick van Dyke, Britney Spears
    • AndyC: Elon Musk, Michael Eavis, Joe Biden
    • David: Henry Kissinger, Piers Morgan
    • Louise: David Attenborough, Volodymyr Zelenskyy
    • [Finally, Kissinger died]

Stay tuned for 2024.

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Ten years later

My Google Assistant had an interesting message for me this morning. I apologise for the aspect ratio; if it helps, please rotate your head.

It seems young, thrusting Past Me left a reminder for old, busting Present Me, directing me to a blog post. This blog post, in fact, posted ten years ago today.

Here’s the salient quote, and what made me leave the reminder to myself:

I’ve said this many times, and it’s truer than ever. The test of any proposed new law should not be how it is intended to be used today, nor how the next government or the next set of police commissioners might decide to interpret it. It’s about the government and the police that come after them. The ones we cannot know, living in a world we cannot know, with pressures and technologies and enemies and realities we cannot know.

The post ends with this:

Who will be prime minister on August 20, 2023? Cameron? Miliband? The other Miliband? Johnson? Farage? Griffin?

It seems quaint, naive almost, to think that there was a chance Cameron would still be PM today. Cameron! Posh PR man, pig man, Brexit man, austerity man. In the last ten years we’ve had “Brexit means Brexit” May, father-of-n Johnson, that one who killed the queen and the economy (I had to think: Truss, who was swapped at birth with a deer in some headlights), and now we’re on Sunak, currently fresh from a $1200-per-head meal at Disneyland and richer than the King. Sunak, who – don’t forget – lost to a candidate so poorly equipped for office she was unceremoniously dumped after 45 days.

Sunak wasn’t even an MP ten years ago. In 2013, he was director of an investment firm, coincidentally I’m sure owned by his father-in-law. And neither was Keir Starmer, now leader of the Labour Party, then Director of Public Prosecutions.

Since 2013 we’ve also had Corbyn, Trump, and Brexit, and Ukraine, and we almost won a couple of football things, and Liverpool hosted Eurovision, and we had Covid.

We still have Covid.

And Sunak has been curtailing the right to protest, and pushing laws about police surveillance of private communications, and leads a government that hates immigrants and trans people, and happily allows corporations to pollute the rivers and seas, and pretends it cares about addressing climate change while continuing to subsidise and push fossil fuels.

The ones we cannot know, living in a world we cannot know, with pressures and technologies and enemies and realities we cannot know

Where will we be in another ten years?

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Harangued over a tannoy

Sometimes you have an app experience that makes you wonder: has anyone involved, anyone at all, ever thought about how the app is used in practice?

Or worse: they have, and they understand it’s bad, but other factors have won?

I just put petrol in my car. I have a hybrid now and I’m semi-smug about it but I do still need dinosaur juice occasionally. I’ve been putting petrol in cars for some decades now. I know the process. I’ve got the hang of it. Nozzle off hook into hole. Wait for the pump to whirr. Squeeze until tank full or 1p over desired spend. Replace nozzle. Pay. Drive away.

But not today.

Nozzle off hook into hole. Wait for the pump to come on. It doesn’t. It’s then that I see the laminated sign sellotaped just under the LCD pricing: you must use the Shell app to pay for petrol at this pump.

No other pumps available. I do not have this app, because contrary to rumour I do not install every app.

I install the Shell app and start it. I get a standard first-run experience for apps like this: swipe through the exciting features this app offers (yes but can I just buy some petrol?), perhaps you might consider enabling notifications so we can contact you about special offers (yes but how do I pay for petrol?), tell us your first and last name (what if it was raining and I was in a hurry?), please create an account with us and be sure to choose a password with at least one upper case letter, one lower case letter, one number, and one symbol (what if I was 80?), and please select your payment method (OK now can I pay for petrol?), oh and you must check your email to confirm your address and activate your account.

I work in the computer industry. I’m a software architect focusing on customer experience in the broadest sense. I’ve been installing apps like this for 15 years. I know roughly what I’m doing. I’m not an 80-year-old retired person who uses a smartphone to WhatsApp her family, trying to do this in the dark in the rain without her right glasses.

I reach the “confirm your email address” stage when the boy behind the counter is on the tannoy saying “Man at pump 6, <garbled>”.

At this stage, I must confess, I’m starting to simmer. I point to my phone and shout “I’m installing the app”. More <garbled>.

I go to the booth. I stride purposefully. They tell me if I’m having trouble I can move to a different pump, and can I please put the nozzle back on the hook anyway. Because it turns out that when you use the app you must pay before you lift the nozzle. I do not know this because I have yet to reach that part of the onboarding experience that tells me how I pay for petrol, which I guarantee is the only thing I will ever want to do with this app.

I return to my car. Replace the nozzle. Finish setting up the app. From the home screen full of things unrelated to buying petrol, I find the button to press to buy petrol. I locate my petrol station and type in the pump number. I select an amount to pay, which confuses me because I actually want “however much to fill up my tank”, and then see the small print that says it’s a maximum.

I fill up my tank and drive away.

OK: ignoring the onboarding faff, and the stupid app home screen, it’s easy.

But you can’t ignore the onboarding faff. You can’t ignore the app home screen.

Back to my original question: how is the app actually used in practice?

Primary goal of the user: put petrol in tank, possibly filling it up.

That’s it. That should be the focus of the app.

When do people install the app? Typically in situations like mine: they’re forced to do so. Nobody sitting on their sofa on a Saturday night thinks, “Oh, let me just install the Shell app for the next time I need to put petrol in my car.”

The very first screen you see when running the app for the first time should have a big button that says “I just want to fill up and pay now”. When you press it, you should get clear instructions, starting with: make sure the nozzle is on the hook. It should set up payment as part of this process. It should end with reassurance that you can just drive away at the end.

At no point does it need your name, email address, a secure password, or any of that. Want is not the same as need.

Here’s the home screen of the Shell app for me right now:

Stop downplaying the feature that enables the user’s primary goal: the narrow blue box. That should be at the top, big and bold. The wording’s fine. I’d make it fill the home screen, with tabs for everything else.

I literally could not care less about how many more visits I need to make to unlock some unspecified “fuel reward”. What is it, some money off a tank? If you want an incentive for me to use Shell every time, then drop your prices for every visit, to the same amount as the reward.

STOP GAMIFYING STUFF.

What are the user’s goals? Fill up and drive off. Solve that problem and get out of my way.

Of course the app’s product managers will say: but we want to present a smorgasbord of incredible offers available to our users, so we’ll need to collect their details for definitely-non-spamming purposes. Fine. If they’re genuinely good offers, people will sign up.

I’ve just been forced against my will to give you my contact details so I can put petrol in my car, which is a service you previously offered without such a requirement. What do I get in return? 10% off a specific hot chocolate at participating stations? That does not seem a fair exchange.

I eagerly await an email from my new friends at Shell enticing me to visit again to sample their hot chocolate, as if a Shell garage or any garage should be one of my primary lifestyle destinations. I’m over 50, I already have John Lewis.

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Avaragado and friends predict 2023

Well, 2022 was a year, wasn’t it? Two monarchs and about thirty-seven prime ministers. Still we crumble on, watching those Brexit benefits pile up on street corners.

On New Year’s Eve the usual suspects plus special guests gathered at the Town and Gown as usual to drink away the afternoon and rummage for predictions for the year ahead. Here we are, already two bottles to the wind:

Predictions

  • Louise: will China try to invade Taiwan?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: China will invade Japan
    • Melanie: yes
    • AndyC: no
    • David. no
    • Louise: yes
  • Louise: will Putin die?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: Who’s Putin? No
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
  • Chris: who will be the Glastonbury headliners?
    • Chef: PinkPantheress. Doja Cat
    • Chris: Taylor Swift, Arctic Monkeys
    • Melanie: Dua Lipa, Harry Styles
    • AndyC: Eminem, Rihanna
    • David: Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift
    • Louise: pass
  • Chef: will the Bank of England base rate hit 5%?
    • Chef: no, 4.75%
    • Chris: no, 4.5%
    • Melanie: yes, 5%
    • AndyC: yes, 5.5%
    • David: yes, 6%
    • Louise: yes, 5%
  • David: when will Jeremy Hunt stop being Chancellor?
    • Chef: he won’t
    • Chris: he won’t
    • Melanie: he won’t
    • AndyC: he won’t
    • David: June
    • Louise: he won’t
  • AndyC: will the government do a Covid booster for under 50s?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: no – but people will be able to pay to get one
  • Chef: will there be another Scottish referendum on independence?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: no
    • David: no
    • Louise: no
  • AndyC: will the Cambridge congestion charge be approved?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: not in its current form, yes eventually
    • Melanie: sadly yes
    • AndyC: yes but changed
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
  • Chef: nominate some celebrity deaths
    • Chef: Elton John, Robbie Williams
    • Chris: Barry Manilow, Greta Thunberg
    • Melanie: Dick van Dyke, Britney Spears
    • AndyC: Elon Musk, Michael Eavis, Joe Biden
    • David: Henry Kissinger, Piers Morgan
    • Louise: David Attenborough, Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Apologies to those nominated. Some of them at least.

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Avaragado’s 2022 predictions – results

And so the Earth completes another ellipse around the Sun, and New Year’s Day arrives along with its traditions: the concert from Vienna with its polkas and waltzes, the wondering which shops will be open, and the results of last year’s predictions.

Here they are again, with my comments in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Chef: Still Boris Johnson this time next year?
    • Chef: yes
    • Melanie: nope, he’ll be gone by March
    • David: no, July
    • [I believe Chris was too far gone to submit an opinion for this one. Melanie and I were both right – and Johnson did announce his resignation in July, although he stayed PM until September. None of us foresaw the ensuing chaos of Truss]
  • Chris wanted it on record for some reason that the four of us “will go out to eat at a vegan restaurant in 2022”
    • [Yes, we did]
  • David: Will the dear old queen make it to 2023?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • David: yes
    • Chef: no, she’ll pop off in October
    • [Chef was almost spot on! She died in September]
  • Chef thinks the James Webb Space Telescope deployment will fail in some way and it’ll be toast
    • [Chef was wrong. It’s fine, and producing amazing images]
  • Chris: Will ARM be bought by Nvidia?
    • Chris: yes, September
    • Melanie: yes, August
    • David: yes, July
    • Chef: yes, June
    • [None of us got this right. The takeover was abandoned]
  • Chris: Will WH Smith still exist on the high street?
    • Chris: no
    • Melanie: no
    • David: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • [No idea why we cared about WH Smith enough to predict its future. It still exists, so Chef and I are both right]
  • Melanie: Will Adrian have a job?
    • Consensus: nope
    • [Correct]
  • Melanie: Will Prince Andrew lose that civil case against him?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • David: no
    • Chef: yes
    • [Technically he settled, deciding to pay millions to someone he claimed he’d never met. Seems legit]
  • David: What will be the name of the most recent major Covid variant?
    • Chris: Ting-tong
    • Melanie: Mut (Egyptian hieroglyph, Vulture)
    • David: Psi
    • Chef: Alpha-gamma
    • [It still seems to be Omicron]

In a bit: our predictions for 2023.

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Avaragado and friends predict 2022

I mean, anything could happen. This Tory Cinematic Universe in which we’re all background artistes, with the stars anchored wide-legged and slack-jawed beside poles surrounded by broken crockery, continues its relentless storyline of implausibility and poor gags.

An exclusive coterie of four – me, Chef, Chris and Melanie – booked the inside of a barrel at the Town and Gown for lunch on New Year’s Eve to resurrect the tradition interrupted in 2020 by the thing. We slung together some random half-arsed predictions for 2022 after some wine and cocktails, and present them to you below, after the visual interlude. I apologise in advance.

Predictions

  • Chef: Still Boris Johnson this time next year?
    • Chef: yes
    • Melanie: nope, he’ll be gone by March
    • David: no, July
  • Chris wanted it on record for some reason that the four of us “will go out to eat at a vegan restaurant in 2022”
  • David: Will the dear old queen make it to 2023?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • David: yes
    • Chef: no, she’ll pop off in October
  • Chef thinks the James Webb Space Telescope deployment will fail in some way and it’ll be toast
  • Chris: Will ARM be bought by Nvidia?
    • Chris: yes, September
    • Melanie: yes, August
    • David: yes, July
    • Chef: yes, June
  • Chris: Will WH Smith still exist on the high street?
    • Chris: no
    • Melanie: no
    • David: yes
    • Chef: yes
  • Melanie: Will Adrian have a job?
    • Consensus: nope
  • Melanie: Will Prince Andrew lose that civil case against him?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • David: no
    • Chef: yes
  • David: What will be the name of the most recent major Covid variant?
    • Chris: Ting-tong
    • Melanie: Mut (Egyptian hieroglyph, Vulture)
    • David: Psi
    • Chef: Alpha-gamma

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Avaragado’s 2021 predictions – results

And so we enter season 3 of 2020, in which the writers dangle the prospect of a return to normality while placing several Chekhov-shaped revolvers on sundry mantelpieces. Before the new year overwhelms us, let’s revisit our predictions for 2021. As I could and can no longer be bothered to think of anything in advance, we came up with ideas on the fly – in a Zoom call, due to lockdown 3.

Here’s a cut-and-paste of the predictions we made, with commentary…

  • Louise: Joe Biden dies before end of 2021
    • Technically, no.
  • Will Trump vacate the White House willingly?
    • Group consensus: yes
    • Well. Not sure “willingly” is the word, given he instigated an attempted coup, refused to attend Biden’s inauguration, and still claims the election was rigged. But he didn’t stage a dirty protest in the Oval Office (as far as we know) and did fly off to Mar-a-Lago without the need for a straitjacket so maybe this is a yes?
  • Who will replace Boris Johnson, because surely he’s toast in 2021?
    • Chef: nobody – he’ll stay
      • Correct!
    • Adrian: Gove
      • Nope. Though Gove is now suspiciously quiet and lying in wait
    • David: Priti Patel, because we haven’t suffered enough
      • Nope. Don’t rule her out for 2022 though
    • Chris: Craig from Big Brother 1
      • I think Chris was drunk by now
  • Tokyo Olympics?
    • Won’t happen – Chef, Melanie, Chris
      • Wrong
    • Will happen – Adrian
      • Correct!
    • Will happen, but cut down – David, Louise
      • Correct, even more so – no spectators allowed
  • Glastonbury?
    • Will happen – Chris
      • Nope, although there was a kind of pretend Glastonbury
    • Won’t happen – Chef, Melanie, Adrian, David, Louise
      • Correct
  • When will the Bond film get released?
    • November – Melanie, David
      • Wrong
    • August – Chef
      • Wrong
    • September – Adrian
      • Correct!
    • July virtually – Louise
      • Wrong
    • April – Chris
      • Wrong
  • When will you personally be vaccinated?
    • Louise – July
    • Melanie – June
    • Chris – he won’t get it (I think he meant he wouldn’t be invited, not that he’d refuse)
    • Chef – June
    • Adrian – April
    • David – May
    • We were all massively pessimistic here. I was vaccinated in February, April, and October
  • When will we as a group go for a proper dinner together again?
    • Louise – June
    • Melanie – August
    • Chris – March
    • Chef – April
    • Adrian – May
    • David – May
    • It was April, for Melanie’s birthday – Chef was right. Although we were limited to 6 people, so Chef wasn’t actually there. There are some photos below.
  • Will anyone on this call leave the UK in 2021? (“UK” = UK + Scotland in case Scotland has ejected)
    • Louise – yes – Lynda will go to Spain ASAP
    • Melanie – yes, Lynda
    • Chris – yes, Lynda and Chris/Melanie
    • Chef – yes, Chris/Melanie, himself
    • Adrian – no
    • David – yes, Lynda
    • Pretty Sure Lynda went to Spain at some point this year. I don’t think any of the rest of us left the country.
  • In which month of 2021 will the Duke and Duchess of Sussex cease to be duke and duchess?
    • Louise – not at all
    • Melanie – October
    • Chris – not at all
    • Chef – not at all
    • Adrian – June
    • David – not at all
    • They remain duke and duchess.
  • Wimbledon?
    • Louise – July
    • Melanie – July but no crowd
    • Chris – won’t happen
    • Chef – August
    • Adrian – July
    • David – July but with smaller crowds
    • I was closest here. Crowds were limited until the last couple of days. Amazingly Stan got a grounds pass for the final Saturday, so we were there. There are some photos below.
  • This gathering next NYE?
    • Chris: all of us, evening meal, posh hotel in London – specifically, The Ritz
      • Very nope
    • Chef: Town and Gown (not that one), lunchtime, but he thinks it’s a bit optimistic
      • Correct! Photos below

Photos!

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Avaragado and friends predict 2021

Greetings from Space Year 2021, in which you can and often must do everything from the comfort of your own home except tell an investment bank that you’ve moved, which still requires written confirmation and a recent, original document that none of us receive anymore because we’ve all gone paperless.

Anyway, I shall take that up with my bank manager, a Mr Mainwaring of Walmington-on-Sea. He’ll sort it all out if I give him an orange.

For New Year’s Eve 2020 we followed the latest fashion trends and met virtually over Zoom. Our usual venue, née B Bar, lately Baroosh, and now The Town and Gown (not that one), is like most of the UK in COVID limbo. Cambridge is in tier 4, currently the most restrictive tier, officially labelled “stay at home” and more realistically known as “horse significantly bolted”.

Chris wrote a quiz for us this year, including a round in which we had to identify various TV shows with the heads of the main characters replaced with random weirdos:

Image may contain: 4 people, including David Smith, Lynda Andrews and Duncan Stansfield, people dancing and people standing

The predictions were pretty random, along the lines of dear god when will this nightmare be over? Here they are, in the order we made them:

  • Louise: Joe Biden dies before end of 2021
  • Will Trump vacate the White House willingly?
    • Group consensus: yes
  • Who will replace Boris Johnson, because surely he’s toast in 2021?
    • Chef: nobody – he’ll stay
    • Adrian: Gove
    • David: Priti Patel, because we haven’t suffered enough
    • Chris: Craig from Big Brother 1
  • Tokyo Olympics?
    • Won’t happen – Chef, Melanie, Chris
    • Will happen – Adrian
    • Will happen, but cut down – David, Louise
  • Glastonbury?
    • Will happen – Chris
    • Won’t happen – Chef, Melanie, Adrian, David, Louise
  • When will the Bond film get released?
    • November – Melanie, David
    • August – Chef
    • September – Adrian
    • July virtually – Louise
    • April – Chris
  • When will you personally be vaccinated?
    • Louise – July
    • Melanie – June
    • Chris – he won’t get it (I think he meant he wouldn’t be invited, not that he’d refuse)
    • Chef – June
    • Adrian – April
    • David – May
  • When will we as a group go for a proper dinner together again?
    • Louise – June
    • Melanie – August
    • Chris – March
    • Chef – April
    • Adrian – May
    • David – May
  • Will anyone on this call leave the UK in 2021? (“UK” = UK + Scotland in case Scotland has ejected)
    • Louise – yes – Lynda will go to Spain ASAP
    • Melanie – yes, Lynda
    • Chris – yes, Lynda and Chris/Melanie
    • Chef – yes, Chris/Melanie, himself
    • Adrian – no
    • David – yes, Lynda
  • In which month of 2021 will the Duke and Duchess of Sussex cease to be duke and duchess?
    • Louise – not at all
    • Melanie – October
    • Chris – not at all
    • Chef – not at all
    • Adrian – June
    • David – not at all
  • Wimbledon?
    • Louise – July
    • Melanie – July but no crowd
    • Chris – won’t happen
    • Chef – August
    • Adrian – July
    • David – July but with smaller crowds
  • This gathering next NYE?
    • Chris: all of us, evening meal, posh hotel in London – specifically, The Ritz
    • Chef: Town and Gown (not that one), lunchtime, but he thinks it’s a bit optimistic

Fingers crossed we’ll still all be here to mark ourselves at the end of the year.

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Avaragado’s 2020 predictions – results

WELL.

It’s safe to say we missed the main story of the year. Our imagined 4K teal and orange future conked out at 256×192 with colour clash, just about rendering a Pride flag before the rainbow was co-opted by the NHS. We all learned valuable lessons, including:

  • Politicians, media and public in the UK truly don’t know what “exponential growth” means
  • Driving for an hour to Barnard Castle is a perfectly acceptable way to test your eyesight
  • Despite everything, they actually would keep reopening Jurassic Park
  • Government can rule by decree, and neither the media nor the public nor MPs are too bothered by that

To the, uh, results.

For 2020’s predictions I asked a set of questions of the attendees of our very agreeable lunch, and gathered each person’s answers. Here they are again, with emoji ✅ ❌ scoring.

Politics

  1. Who will be the leader of the main UK political parties (Con, Lab, LD, SNP) on December 25, 2020?
    • Melanie: Boris Johnson ✅, Daniel Zeichner ❌, Layla Moran ❌, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • Chris: Boris Johnson ✅, Billy Bragg ❌, Caroline Flack ❌, Jimmy McSporran ❌
    • Chef: Boris Johnson ✅, Keir Starmer ✅, Jo Swinson ❌, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • Andy H: Boris Johnson ✅, Keir Starmer ✅, Ed Davey ✅, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • Andy C: Boris Johnson ✅, Rebecca Long-Bailey ❌, Ed Davey ✅, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • David: Boris Johnson ✅, Keir Starmer ✅, Ed Davey ✅, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
  2. Brexit! Will the UK extend the transition period beyond December 2020? If so, until when? If not, will the transition end with or without a deal?
    • Melanie: yes ❌, until a table is booked at Milliways
    • Chris: yes ❌, until the end of time
    • Chef: no ✅, and there’ll be no deal ❌
    • Andy H: yes ❌, for three months
    • Andy C: yes ❌, until end of January 2021
    • David: yes ❌, until end of 2021
  3. Will Scotland have an independence referendum in 2020? If so, what’s the result?
    • Melanie: no ✅; it’ll be talked about, but that’s it ✅
    • Chris: yes ❌; no score after extra time
    • Chef: no ✅
    • Andy H: no ✅
    • Andy C: no ✅
    • David: no ✅; it’ll be scheduled for 2021 ❌
  4. Who will be the Democrat nominee against Trump in the November 2020 election, and what will be the result of that election?
    • Melanie: RBG ❌; Democrat win ✅
    • Chris: The Littlest Hobo ❌; Trump win ❌
    • Chef: Elizabeth Warren ❌; Trump win ❌
    • Andy H: Elizabeth Warren ❌; Trump win ❌
    • Andy C: Hillary Clinton ❌; Trump win ❌
    • David: want Elizabeth Warren (score me on this one) ❌, fear Joe Biden; Democrat win ✅
    • [Correct answer: Joe Biden; Democrat win]

Entertainment

  1. How many Oscar nominations will Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker receive? And how many wins? Guess categories for bonus points.
    • Melanie: 4 ❌, 1 ❌, VFX ✅
    • Chris: 3 ✅, 3 ❌, Best lesbian kiss not shown in Shanghai ❌
    • Chef: 2 ❌, 0 ✅
    • Andy H: 2 ❌, 0 ✅, VFX ✅
    • Andy C: 4 ❌, 0 ✅
    • David: 5 ❌, 2 ❌, VFX ✅
    • [Correct answer: 3, 0, Best Original Score, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing]
  2. Which country will come first at Eurovision 2020? And where will the UK finish?
    • Melanie: Putin ❌; bottom ❌
    • Chris: Central African Republic ❌; 30th ❌
    • Chef: Norway ❌; 2nd from bottom ❌
    • Andy H: Denmark ❌; bottom ❌
    • Andy C: Ireland ❌; bottom ❌
    • David: Australia ❌; 18th ❌
    • [Correct answer: it didn’t take place]
  3. Who will be announced, if anyone, as the next James Bond?
    • Melanie: Robert Pattinson ❌
    • Chris: Hermione Granger ❌
    • Chef: Daniel Radcliffe ❌
    • Andy H: no announcement ✅
    • Andy C: Jodie Comer ❌
    • David: no announcement ✅
  4. What will be the highest audience for an episode of Doctor Who series 12?
    • Melanie: 8.7m ❌
    • Chris: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Chef: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Andy H: 8m ❌ but closest
    • Andy C: 9.6m ❌
    • David: 8.5m ❌
    • [Correct answer: 6.89m]
  5. How many Razzies will the Cats movie receive?
    • Melanie: 5 ❌
    • Chris: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Chef: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Andy H: 3 ❌
    • Andy C: 4 ❌
    • David: 5 ❌
    • [Correct answer: 6]

Sport

  1. How many gold/silver/bronze medals will Team GB win at the Summer Olympics in Tokyo?
    • Melanie: 73 total ❌
    • Chris: 69 bronze ❌
    • Chef: 24 gold, 36 silver, 12 bronze ❌
    • Andy H: 50 total ❌
    • Andy C: 65 total ❌
    • David: 60 total ❌
    • [Correct answer: they didn’t take place]

There you go.

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